scour the ocean floor on its 15th mission today, but so far not a single piece of debris has been found. donald sterling, owner of the nba's l.a. clippers is under fire this morning and now under investigation this morning after he was allegedly caught on tape making some pretty racist remarks to his girlfriend. tmz public lisshed the conversa on its website. i'm christi paul. i'll see you later on this sunday. welcome today in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll start with two subjects that have dominated foreign policy this week. first up, i'll ask the

president's former national security adviser, tom donnelly, what his intentions are in ukraine and whether it's working. then we'll look at the next big international crisis. that's the one you will reading about in a few months, even. we have the maps and the experts on hand. also, what is the most important economic trend of the last three decades? there is better an even odds that it's you. i will explain. but first here's my take. foreign policy commands attention when it's crisis management. a street revolt breaks out in egypt or libya or kiev and everyone asks, how should the president respond? these are important part of america's role in the world, but they are essentially reactive and tactical.

the broader tactic is to lay down a strategy that endures after the crisis of the moment. the obama administration has tried to do that with asia's strategy, but progress has been halting and incomplete. so for all its problems, the real threat to a serious asia strategy comes not from the administration but from congress and maybe the american public. in fact, the difficulties in the execution of the asian pivot raised the broader question, can america have a grand strategy today? obama's basic approach is wise and in many ways a continuation of u.s. foreign policy since bill clinton's president, including george w. bush. on the diplomatic front, it has two elements col: deterrence sk

gau -- and engagement. they have deep ties with asia. getting the balance between those two elements is hard to do and easy to criticize. there is, however, a broader is constructive.olicy, one that at the center of this is the transpacific partnership. it would not only be the largest trade deal in decades if it happened involving most of asia's economies, but it would reestablish america's rules about foreign trade worldwide. yet the president has not been able to get the fast track authority that makes it possible to negotiate such a trade deal. the democratic party wan, once greatest party of free trade, has turned its back on it. and in recent years, republican support for trade has also gotten much weaker.

it requires significant budgets, and these are true from both sides of the aisle. public support for any type of ambitious, generous foreign policy is pretty low these days. the most worrying obstacle to a serious american strategy might seem at first to be a highly technical issue. the administration has proposed reform to the international monetary fund which congressional funds are blocking. but reforming the agency is crucial to america's future global vote. let me explain. the imf governing board has long been dominated by the united states and europe. as asian countries have become a large part of the government bye, the united states have put their votes on the board. this mostly would take power away from europe, not the united states. and yet congressional republicans have held up this plan for three years, and they show no signs of being ready to pass it.

this has countries like indonesia and singapore seeing signs that the west will never let them share power of these institutions. they have a point. after world war ii, the united states confronted soviet communism but it also built a stable war order by creating institutions that set global norms and shared power from the u.n. itself to the imf and the world bank. they asked us to expand these institutions to include the rising powers of asia. if washington does not do this, it will strengthen those voices in asia, especially in china, who say their countries should not try to integrate into a western framework of international rules because they will always be second class citize citizens, and they should, instead, bide their time and create their own rules. at that point, we will all deeply regret that we did not

let these companies sbu the club, when we had a chance. let's get started. of course, president obama couldn't concentrate completely on asia this week as the crisis in ukraine continued and even heated up. i wanted to delve into both of these issues and how to handle them. that is the kind of advice that tom donnelin used to give president obama. until nine months ago, he was president obama's adviser. tom, thank you for being on. >> thank you for having me. >> do you believe that vladimir putin could invade ukraine at some point? >> i think if they're involved in the situation in ukraine, i think the russian view here is

that to destabilize ukraine is superior to a successful ukraine in the west. i think they will continue to use leverage. i think the job in the west is to support the ukraine government, to have the elections take place in may, to move forward and build a successful ukraine. a difficult task given that i think putin and his team and the russians are engaged in an express effort to restabilize through a variety of covert operations. >> you spent a lot of time with president putin to hear him say bald facedly who these troops are. >> i think it's unusual to participate in a bald-faced lie,

and it does hurt his credibility. >> how does this end? you say russia seems to want an unstable ukraine. it would be difficult, i think, for the west to totally stabilize it given how close it is to russia, how deeply penetrated ukraine already is, whether it's ukranian intelligence service, ukranian army, eastern ukraine. where does this go? >> i think that where it goes in the short meeting terms are here. i do think our effort should be support for the ukraine government going forward here politically and economically, support and reassurance for nato allies and increase for the price of russian conduct. >> so you would approve ground sanctions? >> if there is no effort to meet the commitments they made in geneva to defuse the situation,

to have as to have them stand down and leave the political buildings they're invading, absolutely i think it makes sense to increase the price of russian conduct. >> a lot of people argue that the pivot has been well articulated, well conceived but fundamentally, badly implemented. that there isn't enough attention on asia, there aren't enough substantive pieces to it, sort of good in theory and bad in practice. as the architect of the pivot, what do you say? >> i don't think that's accurate. president is in asia visiting all four countries. we worked very hard on restoring our alliances and our alliances are in very good shape for a lot of different reasons. >> surely one of the things that strikes you is this rivalry between china and japan that has never really abated, has gotten

worse in many ways now because you have a stronger chinese government in a sense and one that's tougher, but also the rise of a japanese government that is quite tough, and some people would say nationalistic, wants to rearm in ways that japan has never done since world war ii. what do you make of it? >> a very tense situation. when you talk to leaders, the level of emotion is very high as between china and japan. >> and they won't even talk to each other. >> exactly. certainly not at the political level. these are the second and third largest economies in the world. i think it's ultimately in the region's interests to have lower tensions but it's not there at this point. when you have this level of

emoti emotion, when you have this level of nationalism on both sides and you have both sides testing each other, you can have a mistake or miscalculation that can spiral to places you can't predict. that's the real danger. one encouraging note this week was that there was a naval conference that took place during the last week where the navys, including china, of the regi region. that's the kind of thing we need to do to avoid a mistake or accident that can take place in situations like this. all sides need to try to reduce tensions, which is why some of the conduct of the chinese was so troubling last fall when they announced this air zone unilaterally, but it raises tension, doesn't lower it and can result in negative

consequences. >> tom, thank you for being on. how these intentions can lead to the next international crisis, we'll come back with a map and experts to describe asia and the world when we come back. velocity 1,200 feet per second. [ man #2 ] you're looking great to us, eagle. ♪ 2,000 feet. ♪ still looking very good. 1,400 feet. [ male announcer ] a funny thing happens when you shoot for the moon. ahh, that's affirmative. [ male announcer ] you get there. you're a go for landing, over. [ male announcer ] the all new cadillac cts, the 2014 motor trend car of the year. [ matt ] the only thing better than the smell of fresh-cut grass is the smell of perfectly level, fresh-cut grass. that yellow seat's my favorite chair. [ kathleen ] you want to find a john deere dealer? just set your gps to tractor expert. [ jim ] when my grandson grows up, it's his. but it's all mine now.

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tom donelin talked about the tensions, the emotions, the nationalism all coming into motion. i want to talk about what kind of crises we can anticipate and plan for. i asked two of the tom experts i know to join me. robert kaplan is the chief geopolitical analyst and author of "the south china seas and the asian pacific" and the former bureau chief. he's an author of "the contest of the century," and that's geoff dyer.

welcome. >> thank you. >> is it making sense to look at all this and particularly the east china seas? >> yes, but it doesn't's quito war, it equates to a more complicated world, fifth generation fighter jets that can easily create incidents that in turn could enable a crisis. in other words, this is a region that's going to be on the boil for years and years to come. >> there you can see the countries we're talking about, japan, china, the two richest countries in asia, but next to it lots of small countries that are many concerns. geoff, when you look at this, is it easy to say at the heart of what's going on, the motor that might drive a crisis, as china has gotten richer has become more expansive in what it

considers its vital interests, what it wants to control in its region? >> absolutely. china has gone through a very important transition saying, this is our time. we've built up this interest in the last five years. and this is coming to the forefront in the last two or three years. >> china has had territorial disputes wall these other countries. interestingly, they solved most of the land ones, but it's the naval ones that seem to be still at issue. why is that? >> that's because what china wants to do eventually to the south and east china seas is what the united states did to the caribbean in the 19th and early 20th century. dilute american influence in western asia so that china could expand its continental land mass into the adjacent blue waters. the south china sea has the potential to make china into a great military power in the way the caribbean gave the united

states domination of the western hemisphere. >> then you have the east china seas which is the area between china and japan, basically. >> yes. >> to me this is the most dangerous because it involves two very big, rich countries, the second and third largest economies in the world. and countries with huge defense budgets. we saw one version of what could happen. a ship captain takes his boat into these waters. play out for us what you think could happen. >> the east china sea is a more acute problem for the united states because frankly speaking, the united states will probably not go to the war to defend the philippines. it's a poor country but not a serious one like japan is. japan is a serious ally for the united states and upholding japanese nationalism could be as much of a challenge for the united states in the future as chinese nationalism. don't think of navys as just

great warships. the chinese love to use navys as vessels, chinese fishermen could lay claim to a rock that japan could try to intercept. you could have tit for tat that could erupt. asian countries like to strike poses but it could escalate into something where neither side could pull back and you can have what's been forecast short, sharp war. >> and you can imagine some crisis and then neither side, the chinese nor the japanese, can back down because they can't appear weak to their publics. >> absolutely. if you look at opinion polls in japan, you get polls of 90% and very similar figures in japan. remember, this is the second and third biggest economies in the world. one of the underlying risks is you get people talking about

this idea of a sharp, sharp war. and this danger sense you get from japan and china and maybe we can control it. but it's hard to control. it's hard to contain and it can easily spiral out of control. >> people thought that world war i would be a short war. >> they thought they would be home by christmas. >> what should the united states do? there is this balancing act that if it tries to support its allies like the philippines, vietn vietnam, it will get the chinese to feel like the united states is trying to encircle them. >> the united states needs to steer between two extremes. on the one hand, it has to prevent china from finlandizing, if you will, countries like vietnam and the philippines and malaysia. >> meaning that -- >> meaning that finland, because

of its long land border with the soviet union during the cold war, didn't really have control of its own foreign policy. and china is going to seek to do that in countries of the south china sea. but on the other hand, the united states cannot allow vietnamese or filipino nationalism to drag the united states into a military conflict with china given how important the bilateral relationship is for china and the u.s. for the piece of the world in the 20th century. >> so for the united states and china and japan and all the asian countries in this caldron, as you describe it, will be the next big policy we face in international crisis. thank you. next up, if you are a woman, you might be an important part of the last economeconomic tren last 35 years. you will want to hear about it, in any event. i'm tony siragusa and i'm training guys who leak a little,

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now for our what in the world segment. if you watch even just one episode of "mad men," it's clear that since the 1960s, women in the workplace have come a long

way. >> men act like they want a secretary, but most of the time they're looking for something between a mother and a waitress. >> but new studies show they have a long way to go. women today make up about half the work force, a big leap from the 1960s when they stud abocon about a third. but, for example, only 20 fortune 500 companies have women ceos. today women have made good gains but on average, they make 77 cents of every dollar a male counterpart makes. but a startling study came out of the center of american progress and the center of economic policy and research. it turns out that the most important economic trend of the last 30 years might not be high tech, but rather, high employment of women. if women hadn't entered the work force by the millions over the

last three decades, the study says, the u.s. economy would be about 11% smaller. the report, which was partially funded by the department of labor, found that if women worked at 1979 levels, the u.s. economy would have lost over 7 $1.7 trillion in economic output in 2012. that amount, $1.7 trillion, is roughly the gdp of canada. one way to see what a country looks like when women doesn't work so much is to look at japan. japanese women are amazingly well educated, but for various cultural reasons, they do not enter the work force and stay in it. and those who do struggle to break the glass ceiling or the bamboo ceiling. goldman sachs estimates that if japan could increase the female employment rate, the country's labor force would expand by more than 8 million people and its

gdp would grow by as much as 15%. that's significant for a struggling economy with a rapidly aging population. it's probably why shinzo abe's growth strategy has been infused with womanomics. last year he wanted to help women shine. women working around the globe could help in huge gains. if women worked the same as men in egypt, the country's gdp could grow by 30%. france 4% and even the united states could see 5% growth. but let's be honest. women working has produced economic complications. a larger competitive work force has arguably kept wages from raising very much. the brookings institute says if

you look at men, the male work force has increased by 19% since the 1970s. women working has also produced social complications regarding raising children. harvard did a study of american women who had left work to have children. 93% of them wanted to return to work, but only 7% of them managed to do so and only 40% were able to return to full-time jobs. the transformation of women's lives has been one of the great changes in history. it will take time to put in laws and practices that get it to work. perhaps this will be one of the tasks that hillary clinton takes on if she gets that new job everyone is talking about in 2016. up next, does president putin's pugilism represent a

conflict? i have a historian who will look into the future for us.

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war. what is it good for? those were the famous words sung by warren starr. it also makes the title for ian morris' book "war, what is it good for?" i think ian's answer will surprise you. your book comes at an interesting time because people talk about putin and his tactics and strategy and talking about is this the new world or are we fooling ourselves? is he the face of the 21st century or a throwback? >> certainly a throwback. this is the way great powers have done business since the beginning of recorded history. but one of the great changes we've seen across history is people have used war less and less, typically in the last

couple generations to solve problems. >> is that clear particularly among the major states of the world there has been a decline in war? >> yes, i think so. what you see is this huge paradox, and strategists love saying everything about war is paradoxical, but in a weird way, war has made the world a less violent place over the long term. >> explain that. you're saying war makes peace. >> yes, which sounds completely insane. but the way it seems to have worked is if you go back 15,000 years, the end of the ice age, and a farming begins, populations begin to grow very rapidly, and before that if two bands of hunters and gatherers,

one backs down. they start following a bigger society, and the people running these societies figure out that the only way of holding power is by driving down the rates of violence and violent death. you want to get up and plow your fields, pay your taxes and so on. you don't want angry subjects killing each other. >> so there were about 500 states in europe all quarrelling with each other and going off to war. and in a strange sense, many subdued the level of violence because now there were only five or six of them. >> exactly, yes. there are fewer big powers fighting the wars, and the wars that are now being fought are often more violent than the earlier ones because the

societies are bigger. but within the societies, the rate of violence goes down and down. people are not feuding with each other violently as long as they have a strong government. >> what about hitler? you discuss this in the book. >> in fact, in the book i call it the what about hitler problem? the lobook talks about the long-term effects, trying to pacify societies, not because the rulers are angels, but that's to assume everybody conforms to the norm. you have hitler or stalin, but the overall long-term effect is the people who behave sort of way off the path of rational behavior tend not to do very well in the long run. >> does this make you very hopeful about the future? does it make you very optimistic

going forward? >> i'll give you a yes and no on that. the no part is i think there is a number of reasons to believe that the number of years coming might be as unstable to the run-up of the first world war -- >> you just burst my optimistic bubble. >> there is reason to worry very, very much. but on the other hand, which i think the other hand -- >> wait, that's not what's changed. we've had these weapons for a while. what makes this period we're entering so dangerous? >> i would say what makes it so dangerous is that if current trends continue, it looks like the big force that i would say has made the world so secure in the last few decades has been the presence of the u.s. as a global cup. to deter other governments from doing violent actions most of the time.

i think we're entering a period when it's less obvious to other governments that the u.s. is in less of a position to play a deterring role. that doesn't raise the risk of someone saying, let's start a nuclear war. i think that's highly unlikely. it's what we learn from this story of human cultural evolution. while we can't wish war out of existence like the song suggests, we are looking to respond to changes in the environment, and that's what really makes large-scale wars a bad, bad thing for everybody. >> thank goodness we can end on an optimistic note. pleasure to have you here. >> thank you. whatnext up, what's wrong w western politics? my friend has a diagnosis and a prescription. we'll be back in a moment.

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trwith secure wifie for your business. it also comes with public wifi for your customers. not so with internet from the phone company. i would email the phone company to inquire as to why they have shortchanged these customers. but that would require wifi. switch to comcast business internet and get two wifi networks included. comcast business built for business. if i asked you what the biggest problem in the united states is, you would probably say partisan politics. we've heard time and again how there's gridlock in washington

because obama and boehner won't talk or because the parties are so diametrically opposed, but my next guest would say the problem runs much deeper than that. he found a common good of bipartisan coalition that set out to make sense of the american government. explain what you see as the sort of central problem that has developed in american government? one of the things you've always said is that america is uniquely, perhaps because it's a society founded on law, has a reverence for law that has kind of gone into a kind of a warped place where laws are so detailed that nobody has any judgment. give a few examples. >> it's supposed to be a tool of

democracy where now it just sort of orders whatever it's supposed to be on auto pilot. special ed laws are very important passed in 1995 because we had a history of locking away disabled children. now that law has morphed into using 25% of the budget for this country. there is no money for gifted children, no money for pre-education. these laws take a life of their own. >> and the lawmakers use no rule of judgment. >> in 2009 we had an $800 billion stimulus plan. and the point of the plan sold by president obama was to rebuild america's infrastructure. they came outwei with a five-ye report recently where i tried to find how much was used for rebuild infrastructure?

it turned out only 3% was used for that. because no one, not even the president of the united states, has the authority to approve the most obvious building jobs. we're talking about just fixing up an old bridge. >> because you would have to waive certain environmental regulations or labor -- >> yes. >> there's all that stuff sort of written into law that no one has the judgment -- >> we have all these procedures. you have to do this review, if nobody cares. literally you go in, you want to fix something, you've got to send out notices to. the law required them to do a survey of historic buildings within a two-mile radius when the project wasn't touching any buildings. the law is piled high with literally millions of requirements like that that

prevent anyone from actually moving forward and doing their job. >> so one of the things i liked about this book is that you have a series of constitutional amendments that you proposed and the first one is the 20-year amendment would propose a mandatory sunset on all wars. >> right. so congress is never going to go back and clean up all these laws because it violates the laws of physics to take anything away from special interests. so i think the only solution is to have a constitutional amendment that says every 15 years any program with budgetary impact must expire and congress doesn't have the authority to reauthorize it until an independent commission is actually given a report, made recommendations and we've had a chance to review it.

>> and americans have the ability to sue people recklessly in america. >> yes. we have this crazy idea that -- no one is in charge of the courtrooms, either. we have this wild idea that we have the right to sue anyone. come down with a verdict, the sheriff will take your home away. so what's happening in this country because of fear of litigation, a teacher will no longer put an arm around a crying child. reviews run 10,000 pages sometimes because everybody is trying to protect against inevitable lawsuits. they have to make the decision whether this claim. someone has to make a ruling as

to whether it's a reasonable risk on behalf of society. if the legislature is not doing it, the judge has to do it. >> in a way the book is quite hopeful, because what you're saying is the problem isn't that our bureaucrats are horrible, terrible people, it's not that our politicians are mindless, it's that they operate in a system where they really have no authority or responsibility, that in a sense if you free them up to use good judgment and common sense, things will work better. >> we're paralyzed by design right now. you can't run a society with. we have ways of resolving disputes, but there's always room for the official and the

citizen to ask, what's the right thing to do? that's how democracy is supposed to work. up next, why some in europe still live by the boundaries of the last cold war. this will really surprise you. [ dog barks ] ♪ [ male announcer ] imagine the cars we drive... being able to see so clearly... to respond so intelligently and so quickly, they can help protect us from a world of unseen danger. it's the stuff of science fiction... minus the fiction. and it is mercedes-benz... today. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.

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thousands of europeans gathered and attended a state ceremony for the author best known for his novel "100 years of sole tuditude" and my favori. he is known for his short stories. who was the only head of state in government to win the nobel prize in literature? is it benjamin disraeli, theodore roosevelt, winston churchill or vaclav havel.

philip n. howard has been explaining to everybody how a few simple changes in on you government works could make it so much more effective if people only listened. now you can by buying this book. now for the last look. pundits have been that the crisis between russia and the west over ukraine is the symbol of a new cold war. there has been much talk about old dividing lines. russia has been accused of building a new berlin wall. putin has said he doesn't want a new iron curtain. but did you know those old cold boundaries are actually still predicting lives today? here's how. straddling the border between the old czech republican of germany, when that border was between czech slo vauk ya and germany, it was divided by huge

electrical fences. the deer were stood apart. a deer study was used to follow the movements of 100 red deer, 50 in germany and 50 in the czech republic. researchers found that the new generation of deer still respect the boundaries of the iron kurt tak -- curtain. according to the scientists who led the project, biologically it would make sense for the mountain range to be the natural barrier for the deer, not this invisible fence. but a mother passes on to her young a sense of where it is safe to go. the electric fence was a no go, ask these habits live on a generation later. perhaps the deer are teaching us all a lesson. it can take a longer time to break down barriers than put them up. the correct answer is c.

winston churchill is the only one to win the literature prize. if you guessed disraeli, he was indeed a novelist but he lived before the prize and couldn't have won it. thank you for joining us. i will see you next week. good morning, imer in mcpike in mash mash with a look at stories. tmz posted the recording that it claims is donald sterling arguing with his girlfriend seen in these pictures. in the recording the man alleged to be sterling says he doesn't want her associating with people like "magic" johnson at clippers games. we have not confirmed the recording is true, but it

reached president obama. they are investigating. the president says an international co ligs is needed to avoid the perception that this is strictly a u.s. versus russia issue. moscow has refused to pull back thousands of u.s. troops at the ukraine border. and pro-militant russians are still holding ukraine against their will. pope john paul ii and pope john paul iii became saints. also for the first time, two living uppontiffs were present. "reliable sources" starts right

now. >> good morning, and thank you for tuning in to "reliable sources" today. i'm brian pinter and thanks for joining us today. the interview today is with barry diller. he co-starred the fox network and is now head of the company iac. he also has what, for him, is a relatively small investment in a start-up area. it's a company that uses thousands of old-fashioned antennas to transfer old tv stations via the internet. in some markets you can sign up for just $8 a month. you get the big broadcast networks and that's why those networks want to kill aerial. cnn is not part of the